Here's an interesting write up entitled "An Analysis of 2010 F1 Regulations".

It draws the conclusion that the two tier rules approach so restricts the rules for the teams whose budgets aren't capped that they will be forced to cap their budgets to be competitive. So it would be unlikely there is actually a two tier series in effect. But the existing teams would be forced to make massive cuts in staff and to give up the use of much of their investments (wind tunnels, etc) and thus advantages.

No wonder the existing teams are opposed to the rules for next year.