Here's an interesting write up entitled "An Analysis of 2010 F1 Regulations".

It draws the conclusion that the two tier rules approach so restricts the rules for the teams whose budgets aren't capped that they will be forced to cap their budgets to be competitive. So it would be unlikely there is actually a two tier series in effect. But the existing teams would be forced to make massive cuts in staff and to give up the use of much of their investments (wind tunnels, etc) and thus advantages.

No wonder the existing teams are opposed to the rules for next year.

Ferrari (Maybe) Out of F1 in 2010

The board of directors has issued a statement that Ferrari will not participate in Formula 1 in 2010 if the recently passed two tier rules are not rescinded. Renault followed suit. And Toyota and Red Bull have both previously stated that they would do so as well. For once hopefully the teams (FOTA) can stick together and prevail.

These rules would permit teams that abide by a budget cap a host of technical advantages. Teams that spend more than the cap allows would be severely restricted in what they're able to do.

It's simply an unworkable situation. The last thing F1 needs is two classes of cars and to go this far into the year without the rules for next season finalized so the teams can begin designing. Further, how is it possible to enforce such a cap with any significant degree of confidence? It's not.

The constant (and unilateral) implementation of rules that don't enhance the quality of racing (grooved tires from 1998-2008), add to the costs (KERS), and damage the sport, alienating many FIA constituents (ADAC, AAA I believe are two of the biggies) has taken its toll on the sport.

It's time for Max Mosley (and Bernie Ecclestone) to exit. F1 has been run by greed (Ecclestone) and hunger for power (Mosley) for too long. A lot of people are waiting for them to be carted off so more sensible management can be brought in. Their rule changes have generally had the opposite effect of their stated intentions.

Hopefully someone will finally run against and defeat Mosley this fall when he (again) stands for reelection.

F1 2009 Video - Technical Details

Here's a nice animation video from Red Bull Racing which explains some of the technical changes for the 2009 season, narrated by Sebastian Vettel (future F1 champion and quite possibly will be one of the greats methinks).

Note the part about KERS (Kinetic Energy Recovery System). If the front brakes do the majority of the work it would at first blush seem that KERS would be more efficient on the front of the car.

On the other hand, with a rearward weight bias and center of (aero) pressure, combined with minimal weight transfer under braking compared with the higher and softer suspensions of other cars, not to mention the fact there's no space up front, and it was inevitable the packaging constraints would require regeneration to take place via the rear wheels.

Anyway, have a look at the video:

F1: European Grand Prix Qualifying

The Valencia street circuit which hosts the Formula 1 European Grand Prix this year looks spectacular with its smooth high speed turns and a bridge (!) as part of the track. Traffic should be less of an issue due to the circuit’s length. One concern I have is that the pit lane entrance might cause problems in the race since the entrance is right on the racing line.

Anyway, Q1 was eventful. Nelson Piquet hit a bird with his right front wheel. Feathers went everywhere for a brief moment. Jarno Trulli finished at the top of the timesheet with his Toyota and Sebatian Vettel was second – an outstanding performance in the Toro Rosso.

The drivers that didn’t make it to Q2 were the “F1 Veterans Club” consisting of David Coulthard, Giancarlo Fisichella, and Rubens Barrichello, as well as Jenson Button and Adrian Sutil.

Vettel finished Q2 in P1 and in fine form. There was some light rain. Nick Heidfeld was third, Sebastian Bourdais made it through to Q1. The Ferraris and McLarens were slightly off the pace but appeared to have plenty to make it to Q3.

Q3 was similarly a continuation of Q2. Vettel’s crew were not ready when he came in for his final tire stop, which caused a slight delay. He ended up taking sixth place on the grid, about 0.2 seconds behind pole sitter Felipe Massa. The top 5 are rounded out by Hamilton, Kubica, Raikkonen, and Kovalainen.

Michael Schumacher was on hand with the Ferrari team, and the Speed TV commentators speculated he was hands on with the drivers and team in his consultancy role. If this is true, could it be that he’s focused on Massa and that is one of the contributing factors to his performance the last few sessions?

F1: Hungarian Grand Prix

Qualifying

Not very exciting. The McLarens locked out the front row, basically paddling their competitors. Ferrari seems to be falling off the pace with Felipe Mass qualifying third and Kimi Raikkonen sixth. Nick Heidfeld was held up in the last turn during his final qualifying lap, didn’t make it out of Q3. If I recall correctly the BMWs did not get on track until late in the session, which seems like a big risk to take.

Race

Massa made a fantastic start. Lewis Hamilton didn’t appear slow off the line but Massa just rocketed by. At the first turn it looked like he might’ve overcooked it locking up the tires briefly, but he managed to go around the outside of Hamilton which was advantageous because he would be inside for the next curve. After the pass he pulled out a steady lead.

Was Massa’s qualifying position a result of a driving error or was he running light for the race? It was hard to tell.

Raikkonen tried to go toward the inside line at the start and was boxed in. Fernando Alonso was able to get around him and stay there until the second round of pitstops. Raikkonen could not get by the Renault.

Sebastian Vettel went wide on the first lap and both Hondas got by. Nelson Piquet also lost a spot on the first lap to Jarno Trulli (?).

Hamilton eventually suffered a left front flat. The cause was unknown but he was lucky to be able to get back around to the pits without damage and losing many positions. Based on his record of flats and tire issues it seems he is harder on his tires than the other drivers. But he’s also extremely fast so it’s probably a function of the trade off between speed and tire wear.

There were a rash of refueling fires among the mid-field teams. Nothing race-stopping but definitely common enough to cause concern. Commentator Steve Matchett speculated they were caused by high air temperature. It was apparently very hot.

After his stop for a tire change, Hamilton seemed off his previous pace after the tire was replaced. It might be he was unsettled or was concerned about it enough that he wasn’t quiet as quick as at the beginning.

Three laps to go from the end Massa’s engine let go in a big way on the main straight. His race was lost and Heikki Kovalainen became the 100th different Grand Prix winner, Timo Glock managed an incredible second place with his Toyota, and Raikkonen rounded out the top 3. He also took fast lap after getting clear road. So Kovalainen woin his first grand prix!

Ferrari has had a number of engine failures this year and one has to wonder if the fact that McLaren supply all the teams’ engine control units (ECU) has any bearing on this. This is not to suggest foul play, but that McLaren has simply been bullet proof on the engine front because they designed the ECU while all the other teams have had to design or adapt their power train to that ECU.

The Ferrari drivers are splitting points and are both in it for the championship while Hamilton is the only McLaren driver who’s in the title fight. Heikki Kovalainen is too far back in the points to be a realistic challenger.

So Hamilton has total support (like Schumacher) from the team to go for the driver’s title, while Kovalainen’s re-signing for next year and his breakthrough win will probably see him to score more points regularly. McLaren’s pace of development has been astonishing. The four paddle steering wheel with a pair of controls for different engine torque maps seems to have boosted the performance noticeably (though it’s not the only reason). They’re looking very strong.

All the other teams are no doubt working on their own versions. However, I am not sure the controls are perfectly within the rules and we might hear rumblings later in the year about that – if competitors using it start dominating. I’m such a cynic but remember the controversy around mass damper systems a couple of seasons ago, among other technologies (ahem, active suspension).

Also, the KERS system for next year may be on target despite recent development incidents. No word yet on how Ferrari and McLaren are doing with them.

Finally, it appears to me Raikkonen will retire at the end of this year at the age of 29. It’s been denied time and again, but that’s only more proof that it will happen. For further proof, you just need to look at his performance at the last few races. He’s been slower than Massa in most qualifying sessions. I’d say he’s not as motivated as before, and that’s a pretty clear sign his heart is no longer in it. Hopefully it’s not true and he’ll stay, but I have my doubts. Don’t be surprised to see Alonso at Ferrari in 2009.

F1: German Grand Prix

Qualifying

Quite uneventful. The only exciting things were that Sebastian Vettel made it to Q3 and the number of times pole position changed hands in the closing seconds with Lewis Hamilton finally taking it. Oh, and Heikki Kovalainen getting refueled with a sophisticated-looking, yet NASCAR-style fuel can. Never saw that before.

Race

Note: I watched a recording of this on Monday evening having avoided all racing news since Saturday, as I had another appointment on Sunday during the broadcast.

The start was relatively uneventful. Robert Kubica and Vettel made a good start. Hockenheim’s current configuration seems good for passing as there are lots of different lines through many corners.

The Hondas are like moving chicanes this year; slow and obtrusive. Hamilton and Kubica were caught behind Jarno Trulli as they exited the pits. Bad luck or timing. Kimi Raikkonen got by Trulli, Vettel passed Fernando Alonso and then Vettel pulled a nice move to get by Timo Glock as well.

If I ran a team I would want Vettel as one of my drivers. He is doing way more with the Toro Rosso than expected, and he’s only 21 – world champion material. Mark my words. If his Red Bull car is decent next year he’ll become a familiar podium guest.

Glock had a big wreck coming out of a right hand turn after his right rear suspension brokes as he rode the curbing. The safety car was deployed and the pits closed for refueling. This rules needs to be changed as it could easily cause someone to either run out of fuel or suffer time penalty which serves no good purpose.

As soon as the pits reopened most cars came in. The pits were stacked, with drivers having to wait while the crews service their teammates. Clearly Hamilton came in ahead of Heikki Kovalainen but did not stop. It appeared McLaren made an error in their pit strategy.

As they exited the pits Vettel forced Alonso wide over the white line. I don’t think Alonso was penalized, and rightfully so as that was the only way he could avoid a collision.

The Vettel/Raikkonen/Alonso battle was terrific. David Coulthard running into Rubens Barrichello was completely Coulthard’s fault. He’s had his time and it’s a good thing he’s retiring at the end of the year to make room for new blood.

Speaking of new blood, Nelson Piquet managed to get his Renault into the lead because he stopped at just the right moment before the pit lane closed. Since he was on a one stop strategy, he was done with all his stops. So when the safety car pulled in and everyone else either went into the pits or had yet to make their final stop, he assumed the race lead. Pure luck.

When Hamilton finally made his stop it was under full green. He came out right behind his teammate Kovalainen. It seems Ron Dennis used team orders and told Kovalainen to let Hamilton by (it was a pretty clumsy pass). The main reason for this is because Hamilton is leading the championship and it’s a really tight battle. Another reason is probably that the team could not service Hamilton during the safety car period because Kovalainen was probably just about out of fuel.

Rather than hold up Kovalainen they just had Hamilton drive on through so they could get Kovalainen refueled, and Hamilton had to pit under green and make up the time through his own speed. Through a series of fast laps he was able to stay in touch with Massa’s Ferrari which was in second place.

So the team orders were a way to correct the team’s mistake. Shades of McLaren’s pit mix up with Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard in the Australian Grand Prix in 1998.

For all the credit that the broadcasters give Alonso, he has not performed as well as he should. Yes, he is fast and makes the Renault look better than it is. But in a number of races he’s throwing away track position with a string of avoidable errors (Monaco, France, Germany) by spinning, and generally pushing over the limit and ultimately losing time, position and points.

Raikkonen just could not get the performance he needed, and Felipe Massa just about fell off the road trying to stay ahead of Hamilton. He didn’t appear to put up much of a fight. It didn’t seem much different to when Hamilton passed Piquet for the lead. Massa is fast but does not cope well with pressure. It would’ve been the biggest fluke if Piquet won the race. He was gifted second place. For his part Hamilton drove a superb race and earned the win.

Budget Capping In Formula 1

There’s broad recognition that unless costs are reigned in, escalating costs in any racing series will eventually lead to a bust once the benefits of racing (PR, promotion, technology improvements, etc) are outweighed by the cost.

Typically at that point the rulemakers go back to the proverbial drawing board and come up with a new version that’s less cost intensive, and often more technically limited (e.g. IMSA GTP, German Touring Cars in the ‘90s, and CART/IRL/Champcar).

The problem is each time there is a bust, the disruption causes a major loss of interest from fans and participants. So when the new version comes out, not only are the cars often emaciated, so is the series – just a shadow of its former self.

Formula 1 has implemented a number of ideas over the last few years with the intention of reducing costs, but it seems budgets are no less these days – part of the reason being that teams will spend as much as they can, to be as competitive as they can be.

If one portion of the car becomes limited for development, such as using standard engine control units (ECU) or tires, the money the teams would have spent on these areas would simply diverted to other areas of research and development. Even if the cars were ‘spec’ (all identical to one another) there would still be competitive differences among team through testing and simulation.

Now F1 is thinking about budget caps to restrict spending, though from what I’ve seen it won’t include driver salaries or engine costs. I find the concept of regulating racing through accounting controls unpalatable. There are many ways to skirt the regulations when it comes to money.

Teams will use all resources their budgets allow. Limiting that with accounting controls isn’t going to cut costs. My guess is if a budget cap goes into effect, the probability that 5 years later the same teams that are winning now are winning then is quite high.

A budget cap will require total transparency in addition to watertight rules. The way the FIA went about last season’s hearings and scandals, the one thing that is completely obvious is that they haven’t quite gotten the grasp of operating transparently. So a budget cap is even less likely to work.

What F1 needs to do is cut down force dramatically (make the wings standard and smaller), reduce the turbulent air behind the cars so they can race closer, and bring back slick tires. Finally, they need to tighten up the rules so we don’t have everyone waiting a month after the last race of the year to have a championship decision made in a faux court – it should be decided on track.

If F1 keeps going the way it’s going with all these shenanigans that have nothing to do with racing action, it will find itself in a bust sooner or later as the manufacturers outspend the smaller teams into oblivion and then pull out. It’s time for a change but budget caps will neither limit spending nor improve the racing.